TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

Stripe IPO in 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,713
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,261

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,713 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x431c…4ffabacked Yes1c5,170$47 inLost-$46.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dbc…7032backed Yes1c2,019$22 inLost-$2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes8c1,430$119 inLost-$118.692626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c852.62$12 inLost-$11.551274.7%6 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-83.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes2c716.45$16 inLost-$16.1240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d8…af58backed Yes3c594.61$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes12c559.45$69 inLost-$69.45175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-92.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes5c477.99$23 inLost-$22.54340%0 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x174a…930abacked Yes4c375.91$15 inLost-$14.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes8c301.96$23 inLost-$22.9119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick33cpaid-81.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8c0…be99backed Yes4c250$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6692…1125backed Yes6c200$12 inLost-$1240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes8c181.6$14 inLost-$13.7110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes10c141.11$14 inLost-$14.1140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes14c120$17 inLost-$16.611634.5%40 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes14c100$14 inLost-$1413932.4%45 W · 94 L-16.7wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-40.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.