TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO1)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof PARIVISION, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$463,706
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$527,196

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $463,706 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 409 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed PARIVISION40c74,022$29,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,962.929942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed PARIVISION51c25,752$13,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,127.8357647.6%274 W · 302 L-25.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked PARIVISION42c22,000$9,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,239.9813633.1%45 W · 91 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Natus Vincere58c16,590$9,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,013.6225842.2%109 W · 149 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ab…f2c3backed PARIVISION56c14,608$8,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,168.492958.6%17 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Natus Vincere58c14,568$8,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,047.4912648.4%61 W · 65 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Natus Vincere50c12,043$5,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,053.1932552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed Natus Vincere58c10,548$6,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,453.2872453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Natus Vincere59c10,169$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,169.4981751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed PARIVISION49c9,977$4,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,887.231,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Natus Vincere60c9,277$5,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,738.6332348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Natus Vincere57c7,815$4,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,360.429861.2%60 W · 38 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Natus Vincere70c7,119$5,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,113.5746949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Natus Vincere58c6,711$3,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,818.4922849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb7…082dbacked Natus Vincere63c6,263$3,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,346.311070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+24.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere47c6,235$2,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,307.643,25650.3%1,637 W · 1,619 L+97.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7437…e1e9backed PARIVISION48c6,142$2,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,927.8710942.2%46 W · 63 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere47c6,000$2,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,165.911,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3df8…a696backed Natus Vincere60c6,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4003452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7e2…826cbacked Natus Vincere57c5,901$3,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,529.078342.2%35 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed PARIVISION43c5,406$2,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300.914441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked PARIVISION52c4,918$2,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,539.1519834.8%69 W · 129 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb615…5baebacked Natus Vincere60c4,136$2,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6395261.5%32 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Natus Vincere59c3,829$2,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.8315050.7%76 W · 74 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed PARIVISION49c3,592$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7509234.8%32 W · 60 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa61b…3984backed Natus Vincere58c3,452$2,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,440.928657%49 W · 37 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Natus Vincere59c3,305$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.054362.8%27 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Natus Vincere38c3,217$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,001.2332425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadc5…3d41backed Natus Vincere42c3,000$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,749.991752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed PARIVISION36c2,984$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.714,22049.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L+61.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x853c…e8f2backed PARIVISION6c2,748$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.751464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed PARIVISION13c2,527$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.081,56729.8%467 W · 1,100 L-86.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed PARIVISION43c2,326$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010043%43 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked PARIVISION63c2,215$1,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,390.9227133.2%90 W · 181 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION19c2,066$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.313,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Natus Vincere59c2,042$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.22850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Natus Vincere60c2,029$1,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.6332548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Natus Vincere58c2,000$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.994242.9%18 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed PARIVISION51c1,970$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00019448.5%94 W · 100 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed PARIVISION37c1,922$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.221,08050.9%550 W · 530 L+38.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Natus Vincere59c1,779$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.5327950.2%140 W · 139 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7c…5947backed Natus Vincere57c1,757$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.528629.1%25 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked Natus Vincere56c1,700$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.9913646.3%63 W · 73 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed Natus Vincere59c1,695$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.9213954.7%76 W · 63 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Natus Vincere59c1,695$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.926142.6%26 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab5…aab4backed Natus Vincere46c1,671$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.62060%12 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Natus Vincere63c1,587$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.39044.4%40 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0931…61dcbacked Natus Vincere59c1,522$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.491353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed PARIVISION14c1,490$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.41,27721.9%280 W · 997 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde67…bab9backed PARIVISION42c1,447$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.743644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed PARIVISION41c1,400$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57453746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x414f…29a2backed Natus Vincere59c1,325$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.432458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed PARIVISION41c1,200$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49621846.8%102 W · 116 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked PARIVISION42c1,190$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013460.4%81 W · 53 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f26…c83bbacked PARIVISION34c1,189$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.5520936.4%76 W · 133 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked PARIVISION43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50026045%117 W · 143 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe81c…a724backed PARIVISION35c1,147$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.37055.7%39 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Natus Vincere59c1,035$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.2413461.9%83 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb4d…de5abacked Natus Vincere59c1,018$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.1924440.6%99 W · 145 L-12.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed PARIVISION34c1,010$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.0860838.2%232 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Natus Vincere38c1,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6202317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed PARIVISION7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709734%33 W · 64 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked PARIVISION41c999.99$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41022056.4%124 W · 96 L+19.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xed9d…8301backed PARIVISION42c991$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.342356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Natus Vincere39c988.91$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.6441850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa019…c220backed PARIVISION13c949.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.521437.9%81 W · 133 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed PARIVISION40c949.65$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.8688242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b4…5193backed PARIVISION45c901.57$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.846454.7%35 W · 29 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x15ff…62ccbacked Natus Vincere58c900$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3785547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…b518backed Natus Vincere58c859.25$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.257955.7%44 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Natus Vincere59c847.46$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.4626549.1%130 W · 135 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1866…1325backed PARIVISION6c821.21$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.468648.8%42 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked PARIVISION41c777$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.571,14449.4%565 W · 579 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed PARIVISION60c765.88$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46042638%162 W · 264 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed PARIVISION32c759.35$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.6922554.2%122 W · 103 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked PARIVISION42c750$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31510442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed PARIVISION43c737.85$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.834146.6%159 W · 182 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccef…7c90backed Natus Vincere55c727.27$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed PARIVISION42c720.09$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30096740.7%394 W · 573 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed PARIVISION58c700$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.7958961.3%361 W · 228 L-1.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x973f…4b3ebacked PARIVISION35c676.8$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Natus Vincere54c656.99$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.6921055.7%117 W · 93 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85e2…0980backed PARIVISION58c653.32$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37711746.2%54 W · 63 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed PARIVISION45c647.67$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29120050.5%101 W · 99 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc7e…08fdbacked Natus Vincere48c616.44$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.423246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked PARIVISION37c614.47$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.9716146%74 W · 87 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad4b…e93dbacked Natus Vincere50c600.14$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.149050%45 W · 45 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed PARIVISION46c600$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.2244648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Natus Vincere59c593.22$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.2229851.3%153 W · 145 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f8…54bdbacked Natus Vincere51c591.23$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.6525350.2%127 W · 126 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14d4…e535backed Natus Vincere43c579.98$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.693441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3520…f128backed Natus Vincere54c576.21$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.4910951.4%56 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96d2…2c6fbacked PARIVISION42c575$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.51838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked Natus Vincere43c561.07$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.0726438.6%102 W · 162 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked PARIVISION18c550$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9929235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2a0…d7a5backed PARIVISION57c549.77$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.785563.6%35 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x02fb…0a53backed PARIVISION67c533.6$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.51955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed PARIVISION41c520.38$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.1528351.9%147 W · 136 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb82d…c40dbacked PARIVISION41c519.51$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2138243.9%36 W · 46 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b25…b5ccbacked Natus Vincere58c517.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.241376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+29.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.