Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Bitcoin above $114K on September 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc76fbd6b11a6a8cfb9a900e70d5fc4c9f11637480ef207f66f3ecb7ce7b40670
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $239,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 3c | 27,442$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.23 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724d…8deabacked Yes | 9c | 16,993$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.45 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f8…8d75backed Yes | 15c | 12,699$1,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,923.33 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Yes | 6c | 10,828$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa124…4891backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d7…5b7bbacked Yes | 4c | 7,258$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.51 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 2c | 5,290$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.51 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 4c | 5,113$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 4c | 4,515$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,501$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 21c | 3,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked Yes | 3c | 3,361$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068d…70d3backed Yes | 1c | 3,308$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 69c | 3,110$2,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.04 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 8c | 2,999$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 67c | 2,858$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.41 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes | 3c | 2,152$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Yes | 2c | 1,574$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2b…b404backed Yes | 5c | 1,205$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,185$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e7…9e61backed Yes | 3c | 1,054$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…cfc4backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +34%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…0eb4backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.12 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb22b…be5ebacked Yes | 4c | 900$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…a376backed Yes | 13c | 900$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 26c | 830$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.1 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 15c | 791.71$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.9 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +197.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 5c | 712.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x821c…ffc7backed Yes | 13c | 700$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…55b2backed Yes | 15c | 649.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…29c5backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc453…2bcdbacked Yes | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 2c | 597.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 8c | 530$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6e…c9dbbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Yes | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060f…3c0ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked Yes | 13c | 500$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…96a7backed Yes | 26c | 385.16$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.18 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd957…572fbacked Yes | 26c | 360$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…482fbacked Yes | 6c | 310$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…c969backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1589…688bbacked Yes | 5c | 281.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 5c | 276.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…5a00backed Yes | 20c | 223$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 156$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02df…22e1backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcf…5d31backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed No | 73c | 84.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08a1…6e18backed Yes | 19c | 62.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a70…1b59backed No | 70c | 46.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…c8cbbacked No | 70c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 76c | 30.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7b…13ebbacked No | 73c | 16.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bitcoin above $114K on September 8?this page
- Bitcoin above $100K on September 8?Yes won
- Bitcoin above $102K on September 8?Yes won
- Bitcoin above $104K on September 8?Yes won
- Bitcoin above $108K on September 8?Yes won
- Bitcoin above $110K on September 8?Yes won
- Bitcoin above $112K on September 8?Yes won
- Bitcoin above $116K on September 8?No won
- Bitcoin above $118K on September 8?No won
- Bitcoin above $98K on September 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.