TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Bitcoin above $110K on September 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$270,493
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$246,119

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,493 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe5f8…8d75backed No20c33,758$6,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,769.771216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked No33c12,461$4,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,092.687828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec2…69fdbacked Yes78c10,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb5…8b87backed No14c9,870$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4003023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed No29c8,562$2,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,460.6622216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1eb3…92e2backed Yes66c7,700$5,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,656.51478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+59.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked No19c7,690$1,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.0518425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x724d…8deabacked No20c6,542$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.411526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9c6…95c9backed No25c5,517$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed No3c4,665$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.52633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+97.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8970…36b5backed No17c4,454$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.89425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed No35c3,777$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32225824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc53c…0eb4backed Yes62c3,700$2,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3927652.6%40 W · 36 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes75c3,612$2,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.0213561.5%83 W · 52 L+16.5wins+0.12per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes79c3,556$2,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.3955032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked No1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152425%6 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed No26c2,942$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.2324654.9%135 W · 111 L+16.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x821c…ffc7backed Yes62c2,500$1,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9483948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Yes74c2,101$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.526468.8%44 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed No31c1,842$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.5819439.2%76 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc453…2bcdbacked Yes62c1,800$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6905554.5%30 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb49…a376backed Yes62c1,500$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5734845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c1,296$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.841,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c5…6f71backed Yes79c1,099$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.59850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a55…cfc4backed Yes63c1,000$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3725156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+34%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf02f…b00ebacked Yes71c985.92$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.92666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bd3…96a7backed No32c976.47$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3163122.6%7 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df7…29c5backed Yes59c970.25$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.8540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe25…4e99backed Yes73c952.57$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.591662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x718a…5d86backed Yes74c750$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1951258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c74…c63ebacked No2c750$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked No5c747.63$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.388619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes63c710$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda53…9209backed No30c666.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50f7…7272backed Yes80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes73c479$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.4640643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No18c476.59$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.134526.7%12 W · 33 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+197.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcb5…a908backed Yes54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.372100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+200%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes58c362.77$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.01792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked Yes64c343.62$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.715754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No28c330$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8664812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdeb9…b55ebacked Yes75c294.11$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.53875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffc…6988backed No23c292.39$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2550%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d2a…1b10backed No11c274.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ec…e142backed No22c270$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.31020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-68.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0401…2f0ebacked Yes74c269.58$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd957…572fbacked No37c260$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.331010%1 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-84.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c6a…9f0dbacked Yes67c258.44$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d64…9190backed Yes70c250$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+50.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf06f…6dfabacked Yes58c243$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2326…7b65backed No40c203.75$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97a7…49f7backed No23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469546.3%44 W · 51 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb22b…be5ebacked No26c200$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbad…482fbacked No22c180$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa36d…d201backed No34c147.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08f3…e00dbacked Yes69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb9e…11d4backed Yes74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.143775.7%28 W · 9 L+7.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+55.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x24de…e576backed No19c133.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb81d…8e0bbacked No43c113.34$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.531233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-44.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b6f…340bbacked No13c103.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.117540%30 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3531…c8cbbacked No30c96$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-52.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49cd…ee4abacked No19c90$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eae…1916backed Yes67c86.76$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb770…61b0backed Yes59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.753100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+111.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc18…5a00backed No47c76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.432181%17 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.20per pick61cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9915…3704backed Yes70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.431526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-42.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf17a…e44dbacked Yes78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…d849backed No49c61.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-38.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8229…3425backed No33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed No38c56.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8122550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02df…22e1backed No36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked Yes73c43.88$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.72650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e2…40b6backed No47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0e9…71bfbacked Yes74c42.35$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2b…bc35backed Yes75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d56…2b87backed Yes71c39.44$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x874d…9ed2backed Yes70c32.86$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.86425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfa8…cd1ebacked Yes62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.265100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7cf…0c26backed No47c31.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a1d…2af2backed Yes68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4127…abaebacked Yes68c23.94$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1420…79a8backed Yes64c22.47$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes76c15.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.723773%27 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick67cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.