Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Bitcoin above $118K on September 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1811886a89e377bcbd3f5929b443fbb1bb7e57e5f1dd2e2b829510e7284e0945
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 7c | 18,205$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.73 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf627…30f3backed Yes | 8c | 11,852$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,085$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724d…8deabacked Yes | 6c | 2,719$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.84 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba55…c302backed Yes | 6c | 2,003$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 6c | 747.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd957…572fbacked Yes | 8c | 360$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ec…e142backed Yes | 7c | 270$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes | 8c | 266.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8229…3425backed Yes | 7c | 180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bitcoin above $118K on September 8?this page
- Bitcoin above $100K on September 8?Yes won
- Bitcoin above $102K on September 8?Yes won
- Bitcoin above $104K on September 8?Yes won
- Bitcoin above $108K on September 8?Yes won
- Bitcoin above $110K on September 8?Yes won
- Bitcoin above $112K on September 8?Yes won
- Bitcoin above $114K on September 8?No won
- Bitcoin above $116K on September 8?No won
- Bitcoin above $98K on September 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.