Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Bitcoin above $116K on September 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e8ed5a983936a999b0a34ab5e64840cf344f884e5d05913535127d318d2c558
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c68…4bd0backed Yes | 8c | 13,500$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 12c | 13,414$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545.8 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 2c | 4,880$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 3c | 3,550$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724d…8deabacked Yes | 14c | 3,417$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.77 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 9c | 3,308$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.12 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 1c | 3,281$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,813$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9666…7ebebacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 17c | 720$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.6 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 17c | 708.7$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.48 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +197.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd957…572fbacked Yes | 14c | 360$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 5c | 350$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aa2dbacked Yes | 15c | 233.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 13c | 118.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 113$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bitcoin above $116K on September 8?this page
- Bitcoin above $100K on September 8?Yes won
- Bitcoin above $102K on September 8?Yes won
- Bitcoin above $104K on September 8?Yes won
- Bitcoin above $108K on September 8?Yes won
- Bitcoin above $110K on September 8?Yes won
- Bitcoin above $112K on September 8?Yes won
- Bitcoin above $114K on September 8?No won
- Bitcoin above $118K on September 8?No won
- Bitcoin above $98K on September 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.