World Politics · resolved market
Will a candidate win outright in Ireland’s first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfb12580d46748b026102c81464ab92019fb5322c223c0a5af31f5cb32518302
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked No | 0c | 8,121$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked No | 10c | 4,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…55b2backed No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0c…11dabacked No | 6c | 1,548$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…71ffbacked No | 12c | 1,328$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…23ffbacked No | 14c | 1,174$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 11c | 953.64$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.63 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed No | 10c | 684.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed No | 15c | 361.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…3c7bbacked No | 8c | 353.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8a…5af6backed No | 16c | 203.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 8c | 175.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked No | 24c | 145$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked No | 14c | 124$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12d…1a28backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 16c | 99.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…4325backed No | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 19c | 87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b8…564cbacked No | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…1cf1backed Yes | 78c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.