TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$859,701
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$856,752

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $859,701 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 349 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc284…55dbbacked Yes18c247,980$44,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203,389.39475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+130.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked No69c135,839$93,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93,887.321315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-77.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No77c80,582$62,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,174.046145.9%28 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No77c37,585$28,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,758.6735519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3df4…7771backed Yes22c36,749$8,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,566.393100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+161.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed Yes22c35,000$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,299.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+210.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc550…97d6backed Yes24c34,984$8,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,562.67475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+83.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes40c31,972$12,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,212.8119236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No52c18,266$9,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,457.4641238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4453…1f25backed Yes21c17,582$3,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,817.412100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+213.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe624…e63bbacked Yes36c14,271$5,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,077.09666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked Yes73c13,019$9,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,572.62475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+34.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes39c11,905$4,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,240.962245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No42c11,872$5,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,036.4113714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88ca…dd17backed Yes23c11,506$2,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,892.77650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes21c11,304$2,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,912.2633313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8005…8de3backed Yes34c11,243$3,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,386.82650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed No78c11,000$8,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,539.982657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked No45c10,422$4,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,642.543928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No63c10,068$6,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,307.052245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes33c8,835$2,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,954.057041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf93…7a5fbacked Yes35c8,814$3,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,750.311040%4 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+50.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe821…fd11backed Yes21c8,341$1,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,549.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+365.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes37c7,769$2,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,896.7716544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No79c7,500$5,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,9254542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b5…83e3backed No48c5,906$2,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,829.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No9c5,833$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.293221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No71c5,800$4,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,145.9969634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc29…7774backed No67c5,516$3,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,683.68650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No71c5,489$3,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,924.217633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc5…06d5backed No62c4,839$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.03560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No54c4,671$2,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,512.733240.6%13 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c4,561$3,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,263.1156733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x62f9…f200backed No79c4,476$3,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,532.350%0 W · 5 L-3.0wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No16c4,275$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.443435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No64c4,275$2,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,740.928536.5%31 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc92d…2497backed No57c4,200$2,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,404.17812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.43per pick55cpaid-84.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed No79c4,041$3,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,184.344850%24 W · 24 L+9.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+346.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No6c3,998$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.883112.9%4 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+96.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes13c3,906$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,413.8811347.8%54 W · 59 L+10.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeacf…e34cbacked Yes27c3,757$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,736.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+185.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f4f…c44bbacked No54c3,736$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002751.9%14 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.18per pick34cpaid+43.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes35c3,734$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,426.018036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked No3c3,417$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.542123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No73c3,250$2,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,377.4814940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x921a…ee8dbacked No46c3,030$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.35520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+69.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked No71c3,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1202744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-30.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes37c2,856$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,810.1218425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b9…9687backed Yes42c2,848$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,646.041145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked No80c2,800$2,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,235.24535.6%16 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes42c2,800$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,624.989549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes30c2,500$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.652250%11 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5607…fd15backed No68c2,400$1,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,636714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-78.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No54c2,300$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23413216.7%22 W · 110 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No67c2,290$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,543.794320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed No2c2,280$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.54318.6%8 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dbf…1b63backed No71c2,111$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,495.1420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9802334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes29c1,973$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,397.8110330.1%31 W · 72 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked No74c1,904$1,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.56366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No65c1,847$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.3513540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32a4…3956backed Yes30c1,839$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.721241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x506d…6654backed No79c1,801$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.451145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe427…4c44backed Yes18c1,678$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378.22955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+47.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes21c1,603$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.365137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed Yes23c1,600$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2321225%3 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No80c1,600$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,271.9911538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked No33c1,548$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.251926.3%5 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x301a…edf5backed No77c1,546$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No57c1,500$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8558444%37 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed No73c1,468$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.622729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-56.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0783…dd27backed No76c1,467$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.2120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes28c1,465$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.323639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e45…3662backed No71c1,431$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.92955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick67cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed No79c1,400$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09919328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bb4…f8dabacked No79c1,349$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.93560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbedd…f7bdbacked No59c1,340$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No48c1,244$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.3616144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2783…8321backed No78c1,216$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.07850%4 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-31.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed No66c1,197$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.392951.7%15 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb45e…605fbacked No72c1,197$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.061050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No12c1,166$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9211121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes43c1,164$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.282650%13 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a44…5e33backed No70c1,128$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.041838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked No74c1,114$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.312958.6%17 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc295…dde9backed No64c1,091$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f4…447cbacked No67c1,090$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.99944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes43c1,087$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.643357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes57c1,045$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4455942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes17c1,038$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.038419%16 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x34b1…bc54backed No49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-39.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6606…1338backed No3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-63.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x052c…5a0ebacked No77c1,000$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Yes20c1,000$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8001747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+52.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56d2…84b1backed No54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb44e…84e6backed Yes24c999.89$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+315.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes57c984.55$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.988750.6%44 W · 43 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8481…d87abacked Yes79c980.39$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes50c962.1$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.9711336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd142…5c9ebacked No59c903.28$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.