Us Politics · resolved market
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41d7d27bb4dcaa8ec6ab604d813ac52ac40af95c2021de066d7cb6fe932abab1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $184,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $183,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc284…55dbbacked Yes | 10c | 24,650$2,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 8c | 23,509$1,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853.92 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc13a…90f2backed Yes | 22c | 10,135$2,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,256 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 6c | 7,028$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.73 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 15c | 6,680$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.04 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 6,300$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 9c | 5,043$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.35 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 9c | 4,025$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.51 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 16c | 2,530$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.5 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 2,510$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.18 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 11c | 2,278$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.77 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b9…9687backed Yes | 19c | 2,073$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 8c | 1,991$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.04 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 13c | 1,461$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.69 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 6c | 1,364$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 1,030$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 12c | 1,013$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.35 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.83 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 7c | 984$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.62 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 15c | 750$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b2…1f2cbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 12c | 660.76$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.05 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 577.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…eb90backed Yes | 10c | 405.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…f68cbacked Yes | 15c | 366.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 12c | 361.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed Yes | 5c | 312.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 80c | 300.05$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed No | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Yes | 10c | 230$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 79c | 226.9$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 14c | 195.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc12…542ebacked No | 79c | 192.48$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 7c | 192.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 19c | 190.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 190$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 158$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed No | 78c | 153.47$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc9…1b56backed Yes | 12c | 129.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f9…8f83backed Yes | 14c | 73.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 22c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked No | 80c | 50.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…9f3fbacked No | 77c | 42.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked No | 78c | 40.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae5…60fcbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…72dabacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 76c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eric Adams drop out by September 15?this page
- Will Eric Adams drop out by Friday?No won
- Will Eric Adams drop out by October 15?Yes won
- Will Eric Adams drop out by September 20?No won
- Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.