Us Politics · resolved market
Will Eric Adams drop out by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4e1f6cb11755471afb3e117a7723ffd259357b1fd6af81cf1d95c3ae45b83b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 3c | 2,936$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.09 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 1c | 1,652$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 2c | 1,052$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…73cebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 7c | 759.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…f719backed Yes | 13c | 758.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7364…7f38backed Yes | 4c | 730$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 9c | 700$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f5…cd2ebacked Yes | 24c | 512.89$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 70c | 440$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.68 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 353.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 8c | 290.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 79c | 188.73$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +167%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…6112backed No | 74c | 162.17$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…ce21backed Yes | 64c | 153.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 50c | 150$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 21c | 130$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 35c | 120$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 19c | 110.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 16c | 108.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…0b07backed No | 75c | 106.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…1df6backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 16c | 88.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 74c | 84.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…a10bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…5799backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eric Adams drop out by Friday?this page
- Will Eric Adams drop out by October 15?Yes won
- Will Eric Adams drop out by September 15?No won
- Will Eric Adams drop out by September 20?No won
- Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.