Us Politics · resolved market
Will Eric Adams drop out by October 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86a1f4c96e2de02b9cd6b8e8572f48851c9ab66050f31680cb8f0c63b0aaa93e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 49c | 14,207$6,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,980.83 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked No | 16c | 10,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 17c | 7,375$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 53c | 5,724$3,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,677.63 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc284…55dbbacked Yes | 48c | 5,470$2,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,870.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…7e1fbacked No | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 74c | 4,723$3,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.86 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…e63bbacked Yes | 49c | 3,504$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…7771backed Yes | 55c | 3,064$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,374.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +161.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 12c | 2,671$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.22 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd35…2bb6backed Yes | 49c | 2,497$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.67 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 38c | 1,543$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.07 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 57c | 1,407$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.82 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 43c | 1,325$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.05 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeacf…e34cbacked Yes | 49c | 1,196$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +185.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 54c | 856.67$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.2 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 53c | 620$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 47c | 583.89$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.62 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 49c | 558.7$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.48 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked No | 56c | 443.84$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.85 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 47c | 430.6$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.38 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…dd17backed Yes | 47c | 427.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…33d2backed Yes | 47c | 372.72$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 55c | 347.39$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.65 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa968…aa45backed Yes | 52c | 314.55$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…97d6backed Yes | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x372b…cbf5backed Yes | 42c | 300$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 79c | 291.8$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 66c | 242.42$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.42 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 53c | 238$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.66 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b9…9687backed Yes | 46c | 233.27$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 198.08$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.86 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…2497backed No | 57c | 193.19$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.43per pick | 55cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 55c | 160$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…9d9ebacked Yes | 40c | 126.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…1880backed Yes | 48c | 104.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb9…1649backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d5…8433backed Yes | 60c | 100.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f4…447cbacked Yes | 47c | 97.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 20c | 88.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…8321backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6677…4ea3backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed No | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 56c | 68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa439…796abacked Yes | 50c | 54.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…1d72backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ec…c9e5backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…579dbacked No | 49c | 44.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x376f…4badbacked No | 59c | 43.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfa…ce5dbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…9213backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 43c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 59c | 35.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…027abacked No | 51c | 34.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4e…d4fdbacked Yes | 52c | 31.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd387…6d17backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed2…53f6backed Yes | 52c | 29.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9808…7171backed No | 51c | 28.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 38c | 27.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 53c | 26.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…4615backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.39per pick | 68cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…9f94backed Yes | 53c | 24.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…8056backed No | 66c | 22.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…5665backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eric Adams drop out by October 15?this page
- Will Eric Adams drop out by Friday?No won
- Will Eric Adams drop out by September 15?No won
- Will Eric Adams drop out by September 20?No won
- Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.