World Politics · resolved market
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election by 15–18%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4987c8323919fd56c38ff80866b7a13b9229c095b50c01548f9aac5a63e47463
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa97c…55b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,407$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a9…8266backed Yes | 12c | 600$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 16c | 576.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.32 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…4da1backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4194…3184backed Yes | 22c | 120.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 12c | 119.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…2a96backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 94.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1,344 | 44.3%595 W · 749 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e26…fdefbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 233 | 55.8%130 W · 103 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked No | 74c | 16.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election by 15–18%?this page
- Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election by 18–21%?No won
- Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election by 21–24%?No won
- Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election by 24–27%?No won
- Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election by 27–30%?No won
- Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election by less than 15%?No won
- Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election by more than 30%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.