Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Shakhove by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb323b44264cf4e125302ce5d812bec8fc7bfa56d087a925c42ad6b2a7961d1a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $182,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 17c | 18,405$3,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,067.1 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 19c | 14,771$2,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,780.51 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 15c | 10,665$1,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.16 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 79c | 8,680$6,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,852.69 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 22c | 8,169$1,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,768.3 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 20c | 7,004$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.42 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 22c | 6,750$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.27 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 75c | 6,700$5,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 15c | 5,709$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.99 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0f6ebacked No | 77c | 4,649$3,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.43 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 17c | 4,105$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.25 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 76c | 3,526$2,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.65 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 77c | 3,126$2,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.92 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 72c | 2,933$2,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.12 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 18c | 2,074$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.86 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 9c | 2,016$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.97 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 20c | 1,983$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.79 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,871$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.85 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…649cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,616$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.39 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed Yes | 28c | 1,428$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc0…4cadbacked No | 71c | 1,394$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.36 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 18c | 1,329$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.96 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 75c | 1,326$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.32 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…b13abacked Yes | 22c | 1,267$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b5…a1f2backed Yes | 32c | 1,255$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…23f8backed Yes | 23c | 1,153$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 23c | 1,137$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.44 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked No | 80c | 1,085$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.56 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea36…f272backed Yes | 20c | 1,020$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 18c | 971.97$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.55 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes | 13c | 946.18$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.83 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…e4e3backed Yes | 29c | 943.18$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 17c | 930.16$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 38c | 864.97$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…79e5backed No | 75c | 800.2$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.2 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 790.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 15c | 781.33$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.2 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 73c | 711.98$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.7 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 25c | 696.55$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.19 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…750ebacked Yes | 29c | 689.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b05…ccccbacked Yes | 22c | 642.66$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6051backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 65c | 575.15$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.62 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 76c | 550.8$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.8 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…9abdbacked Yes | 26c | 533.88$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3a…d4d5backed Yes | 19c | 514.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x716e…8c1bbacked Yes | 4c | 505.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c68…f2a8backed Yes | 33c | 490.62$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 489.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes | 32c | 483.05$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.58 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 20c | 442.57$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.15 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…b35bbacked Yes | 34c | 441.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 6c | 429.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed Yes | 36c | 404.98$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.59 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…8d38backed Yes | 35c | 402.53$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 25c | 392.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…d86dbacked Yes | 22c | 379.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +11%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 76c | 377.52$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ae…3808backed No | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…e0ddbacked Yes | 24c | 369.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 24c | 369$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2b…a48ebacked Yes | 22c | 360.05$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked No | 64c | 350$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6c…890ebacked No | 73c | 340.92$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 22c | 337.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 333.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 70c | 331.16$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.35 | 36 | 83.3%30 W · 6 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dc…b1d3backed Yes | 32c | 315.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…6aacbacked No | 79c | 301.91$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 12c | 300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 19c | 300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 17c | 290.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…d967backed No | 73c | 275.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.17 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…33f8backed Yes | 34c | 274.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 76c | 272.42$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba7…2cdbbacked No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 78c | 240$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180b…d1febacked Yes | 18c | 226.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 28c | 217.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…2dd7backed Yes | 8c | 213.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 73c | 207.26$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 26c | 207.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 38c | 204.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 20c | 195.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c1…5ae5backed Yes | 17c | 185.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fd…ec0cbacked Yes | 19c | 180.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 75c | 171.04$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 9c | 167.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…5e2dbacked No | 74c | 161.86$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f17…3d01backed Yes | 30c | 160.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ea…47abbacked Yes | 21c | 159.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 68c | 158$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d80…b979backed Yes | 67c | 149.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c13…5d00backed No | 68c | 146.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 33c | 144.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 80c | 143.25$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…7477backed No | 68c | 140.43$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Shakhove by October 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Shakhove by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.