Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Shakhove by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb33e30b2269e400b48baec0bdb186788a981f731ffcb3fddc9d4b59bf5b5b4af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 63c | 5,437$3,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,989.96 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 36c | 5,399$1,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,946.35 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 40c | 4,863$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925.18 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 56c | 4,760$2,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,101.88 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed Yes | 26c | 3,773$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.98 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 30c | 3,164$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.08 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 47c | 3,088$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.21 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 47c | 2,780$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.1 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 7c | 2,700$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.99 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked No | 55c | 2,615$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.87 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 32c | 2,476$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.73 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 24c | 2,167$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.08 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f8…0550backed Yes | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 42c | 1,979$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.61 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…ce2cbacked No | 62c | 1,935$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.95 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 45c | 1,573$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.53 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 60c | 1,439$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.1 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 32c | 1,413$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.85 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 44c | 1,412$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.24 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed No | 73c | 1,334$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.18 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7af0…a044backed No | 79c | 1,313$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 47c | 1,247$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.77 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 57c | 1,054$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.03 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 13c | 1,019$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 31c | 999.99$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.5 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 29c | 999.24$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.02 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed No | 67c | 983.9$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb704…dc1ebacked Yes | 2c | 979.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a1…f485backed Yes | 60c | 954.41$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 62c | 946.64$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.54 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 46c | 933.22$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.19 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 33c | 919.19$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.05 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 34c | 913.83$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.25 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad66…084bbacked No | 71c | 865$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 48c | 760.91$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.93 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…9975backed No | 75c | 755.72$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.15 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…5f93backed No | 71c | 706.81$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 68c | 698.46$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.9 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1886…d87fbacked Yes | 19c | 681.73$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd608…2e36backed Yes | 57c | 680.35$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.87 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 62c | 622.68$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.98 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed No | 66c | 600$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 31c | 580.84$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.59 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 54c | 580.35$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 37c | 500$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.33 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 32c | 486.04$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.03 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 479.16$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.46 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 467.67$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.47 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 18c | 465.36$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…c55cbacked No | 78c | 450$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 35c | 430.85$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.37 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 33c | 400.1$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.4 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…750ebacked Yes | 46c | 400$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.94 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 399.38$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.49 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 77c | 394.81$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.28 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ca…8561backed No | 52c | 386.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.36 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc441…fe4dbacked No | 80c | 381.17$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf989…47ccbacked No | 79c | 380.65$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.65 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…77fbbacked No | 71c | 375.56$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.02 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 41c | 375.56$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.12 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 9c | 359$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 22c | 349.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 42c | 347.22$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.33 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked Yes | 26c | 300$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…d884backed Yes | 56c | 300$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…e366backed Yes | 34c | 290.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f8…850ebacked No | 73c | 273.55$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…a882backed No | 63c | 272.39$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.63 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 57c | 259.91$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.91 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 38c | 255.95$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a89…7003backed Yes | 31c | 251.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ba…c903backed Yes | 59c | 251.04$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed Yes | 39c | 247.97$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 52c | 236.85$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.23 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 43c | 234.88$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.88 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 39c | 231.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 39c | 225$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 67c | 223.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.27 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed No | 72c | 216.16$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 70c | 212.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 66c | 203.77$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf73…f3d7backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…7e26backed Yes | 74c | 199.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…4e4cbacked No | 63c | 196.94$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…e4fbbacked Yes | 34c | 193.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806f…418ebacked Yes | 62c | 190.26$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69a9…4f49backed Yes | 31c | 179.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +1,840.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes | 28c | 174$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63d1…27dfbacked Yes | 38c | 168.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 18c | 149.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa22…69a6backed No | 67c | 147.85$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…7822backed Yes | 32c | 145.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…649cbacked Yes | 40c | 143.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…65d8backed No | 71c | 141.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 60c | 140.01$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.34 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…53e0backed No | 61c | 140$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 72c | 139.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b05…ccccbacked Yes | 48c | 139.34$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c99…317cbacked No | 75c | 134.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Shakhove by November 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Shakhove by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.