Us Politics · resolved market
Kash Patel out by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf53575504388326e4eacbcf695f85c2a72baf50568127a059eae3429242a7485
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x288d…6420backed Yes | 3c | 7,527$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.34 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…3ebbbacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.49 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 2,770$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.93 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5b…21a7backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,220$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 1,729$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa998…3f87backed Yes | 8c | 1,723$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 7c | 1,700$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.68 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,367$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 1,360$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.06 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 8c | 1,240$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.66 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 6c | 1,137$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Yes | 8c | 1,106$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 12c | 1,105$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 912.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…3437backed Yes | 6c | 894.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…f913backed Yes | 3c | 777.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 12c | 762.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 665.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…978ebacked Yes | 5c | 585.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +193.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaba9…3739backed Yes | 5c | 565.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 5c | 471.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 6c | 399.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 6c | 336$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6c…890ebacked Yes | 4c | 335.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 4c | 284$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 8c | 230$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…1580backed Yes | 7c | 220$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6efe…db95backed Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 76c | 180$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a95…1e25backed Yes | 6c | 159.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 80c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe185…7818backed Yes | 10c | 118.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.