Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump release more Epstein files in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff94b37919431cac79681000b2fb71ec84c1584a7d56f20bad39027721617e18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 5c | 7,856$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.23 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,331$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.61 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…ab88backed Yes | 17c | 3,167$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 19c | 3,050$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.26 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 6c | 2,541$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.74 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 4c | 2,118$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 1,460$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.59 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 6c | 875$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 3c | 817.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf62…cab6backed Yes | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 579.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 6c | 548.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 16c | 450$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 428.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed Yes | 16c | 417.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe268…c745backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 212.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…8f72backed No | 79c | 195.86$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 8c | 192.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 9c | 181.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed Yes | 15c | 132.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 80c | 126.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 15c | 122.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -85%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes | 21c | 100.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…83f1backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 70c | 54.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…8161backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked No | 80c | 21.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.