Token Launches · resolved market
Will Mark Cuban launch a coin by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x351db49760e0bd027aef219861fe6f15481c2354aacbc0f2348f2559ee42f4d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed Yes | 3c | 7,499$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes | 9c | 4,000$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,974$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a45…cf97backed Yes | 1c | 2,899$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x462a…8b5cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,448$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c4…1f56backed Yes | 8c | 2,268$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 7c | 2,200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed Yes | 5c | 2,169$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b0…859fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,970$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,895$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…2321backed Yes | 4c | 1,862$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…1888backed Yes | 8c | 1,083$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 567.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…512bbacked Yes | 20c | 496.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7d…8299backed Yes | 7c | 420$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8460…63e3backed Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 17c | 375.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f9…38d5backed Yes | 8c | 290.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 79c | 280.53$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…0e52backed Yes | 7c | 273.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a1…0770backed Yes | 6c | 266.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…d6f8backed Yes | 6c | 262.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 15c | 259.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902a…730cbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ee…cb9cbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd430…4847backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5b…d883backed Yes | 7c | 185.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…ba7abacked Yes | 6c | 183.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 6c | 183.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…1629backed Yes | 6c | 183.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d9…d0b7backed Yes | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…bb40backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…9d8ebacked Yes | 7c | 147.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…7246backed Yes | 8c | 130.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…9066backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked No | 50c | 89.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…bb36backed Yes | 50c | 59.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…ba14backed Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…83f1backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.