Middle East · resolved market
Nothing Ever Happens: Nuclear Edition
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9debb620f4b9743f4c1e6a480724184c72f31f5571b4439e2a8678b488e3e78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 5c | 9,349$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.64 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 7c | 5,375$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.33 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 2,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 2c | 1,136$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 16cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…f9a9backed No | 13c | 797.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4e…4c80backed No | 5c | 619.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 12c | 588.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 535.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed No | 2c | 479.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 427.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…9d7ebacked No | 17c | 412.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e4…eff6backed No | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 7c | 399.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 7c | 390.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…197ebacked No | 3c | 367.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc7…0a2bbacked No | 14c | 348.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e0…39c3backed No | 3c | 311.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 8c | 275$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 11c | 217.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed No | 6c | 200.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57aa…04c5backed No | 10c | 173.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…5cffbacked No | 15c | 134$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…f574backed No | 14c | 99.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…8fbbbacked No | 32c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…83f1backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.