Us Politics · resolved market
Will China counter tariff the U.S. in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17a851e8c045cb0a8d7c33f8fb1fdb1c48060619eb982493652aa344904dd46c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 4,611$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 1c | 2,117$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 39c | 1,591$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.49 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e64…9917backed No | 18c | 1,008$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 16c | 969.69$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.2 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes | 68c | 884.01$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked No | 37c | 699.99$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 65c | 681.62$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.77 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 21c | 591.81$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.31 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed No | 13c | 579.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.33 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 2c | 537.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 15c | 532$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3b…e2f5backed No | 33c | 523.08$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.83 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 33c | 462$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.54 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…53afbacked No | 22c | 392.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 79c | 344.51$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 77c | 289.9$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc616…c449backed Yes | 74c | 269.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 78c | 247.19$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 13c | 236.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 29c | 221.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 63c | 217.42$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.45 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 61c | 210.87$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.73 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 34c | 196.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 64c | 192.5$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 189.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 38c | 162.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 15c | 159.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0802…8cb0backed No | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6019…8cb6backed No | 17c | 131.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 73c | 122.95$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a07…41eebacked No | 34c | 121.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea3…52a1backed Yes | 79c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 20c | 114.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0c…25dfbacked Yes | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 24c | 101.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…1332backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…83f1backed No | 12c | 98.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 76c | 92.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 31c | 83.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…dd36backed No | 27c | 73.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed Yes | 78c | 67.94$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…0e3fbacked Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +6.7wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2e…e31ebacked No | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30cc…5ed3backed Yes | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 55c | 51.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 62c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d85…4df9backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed Yes | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb04…6deabacked Yes | 58c | 38.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e4…3848backed Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd480…5ef7backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02b…4e65backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 69c | 31.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x960c…e052backed Yes | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…922ebacked Yes | 71c | 27.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…7ee1backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…bf18backed Yes | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ae…8c34backed Yes | 64c | 23.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d5…a6dcbacked Yes | 46c | 22.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe79b…b82cbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a08…d192backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f3…30c3backed Yes | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07f…0fa9backed Yes | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803e…50b6backed Yes | 64c | 17.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ed…5707backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will China counter tariff the U.S. in April?this page
- Will Argentina counter tariff the U.S. in April?No won
- Will Canada counter tariff the U.S. in April?No won
- Will India counter tariff the U.S. in April?No won
- Will Japan counter tariff the U.S. in April?No won
- Will Mexico counter tariff the U.S. in April?No won
- Will South Korea counter tariff the U.S. in April?No won
- Will Vietnam counter tariff the U.S. in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.