Us Politics · resolved market
Will Canada counter tariff the U.S. in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb02330ec11b569d19f937322acc421eeb5da0a52d6199ccc94d26055fdf5baf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 33c | 616.67$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.21 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed Yes | 42c | 520$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.3 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 381.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 15c | 336.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.62 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked No | 18c | 333$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes | 9c | 329.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 19c | 329.42$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.94 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 16c | 316.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.83 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f22…41c6backed No | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 63c | 260.45$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.32 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…5b09backed Yes | 10c | 145.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 41c | 128.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed No | 24c | 124.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 46c | 96.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 19c | 93.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 89.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 31c | 66.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed Yes | 78c | 64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 62c | 61.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30cc…5ed3backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed Yes | 63c | 34.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…d0ddbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Canada counter tariff the U.S. in April?this page
- Will Argentina counter tariff the U.S. in April?No won
- Will China counter tariff the U.S. in April?Yes won
- Will India counter tariff the U.S. in April?No won
- Will Japan counter tariff the U.S. in April?No won
- Will Mexico counter tariff the U.S. in April?No won
- Will South Korea counter tariff the U.S. in April?No won
- Will Vietnam counter tariff the U.S. in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.