Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeda1e51a6d1c33fb177a349ec2007f22bf49eed50fa06d1cb56ec197a377fb40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3979…f49ebacked Yes | 0c | 46,089$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.65 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 12c | 4,000$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.48 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,397$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.03 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 1c | 1,543$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yes | 9c | 1,411$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.86 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 14c | 1,179$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.7 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 10c | 999.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 80c | 750.71$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.72 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 20c | 592.38$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcad…20d3backed Yes | 10c | 543.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…18acbacked Yes | 8c | 483.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6426…bb53backed Yes | 24c | 418.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 400$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 73c | 346.42$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.66 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 334.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bda…5e13backed Yes | 12c | 297.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +634.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b9…2220backed Yes | 7c | 287.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 7c | 270$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 27c | 252.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…4b56backed Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…0308backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 10c | 190$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98a6…db03backed Yes | 32c | 188.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 23c | 180.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 16c | 180.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad85…78fcbacked Yes | 22c | 173.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca4…69dcbacked Yes | 24c | 157.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdc…6d51backed No | 76c | 155$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…e231backed Yes | 15c | 149.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 76c | 109.39$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c9…96afbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…7da5backed Yes | 27c | 75.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x995d…bd40backed Yes | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed No | 69c | 69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…83f1backed Yes | 16c | 66.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…51d7backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 75c | 45.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.