Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump cut NPR funding in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe457590ee4ea398110119d9542d37f7c10899316fac0ba5b562d3a362dcd93f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 1,343$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.53 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Yes | 6c | 1,018$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 55c | 933.39$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…01d0backed Yes | 54c | 699.96$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.98 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 41c | 577.38$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.19 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 448.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 46c | 348$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.49 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…83f1backed Yes | 4c | 347.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked No | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 36c | 238.74$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.59 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Yes | 6c | 184.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…9b02backed No | 48c | 173.14$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.83 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 44c | 172.72$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed Yes | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes | 44c | 149.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…0e71backed Yes | 36c | 144.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7737…e497backed Yes | 55c | 133$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 29c | 131.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 33c | 129.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 71c | 124.25$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 45c | 102.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked No | 68c | 98.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed No | 36c | 63.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 60c | 49.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…d4d2backed Yes | 62c | 48.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bc…4bb1backed No | 39c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9c…1bd6backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5629…64bebacked Yes | 71c | 28.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fe…1779backed No | 75c | 18.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.