TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Panthers vs. Saints

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Saintsof Panthers, Saints
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,184,186
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,232,038

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,184,186 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 684 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Saints41c297,425$123,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174,089.286547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Panthers58c112,613$65,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,487.347348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9e6…025bbacked Panthers62c100,288$62,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,173.081145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Saints42c71,377$29,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,398.755152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b1…968abacked Panthers57c67,273$38,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,345.67939.2%31 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Saints43c50,000$21,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,499.895850%29 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Saints45c36,852$16,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,268.3718156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Panthers57c35,088$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,00018650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Panthers58c32,179$18,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,510.7753348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Saints41c30,000$12,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,699.989359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Saints43c27,010$11,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,325.8883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Saints36c26,655$9,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,041.8430043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Panthers56c26,374$14,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,769.5921254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97cb…9efcbacked Panthers60c22,088$13,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,244.042231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Panthers72c21,961$15,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,781.112528%7 W · 18 L-6.3wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-46.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Panthers56c20,483$11,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,404.431,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Saints43c20,000$8,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,40016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Saints41c19,511$7,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,511.2519553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x54fd…ae61backed Panthers57c19,380$11,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,122.942454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Saints42c17,377$7,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,078.897554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed Panthers57c16,656$9,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,493.89633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-42.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Saints44c15,500$6,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,68035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a00…2296backed Saints69c14,455$9,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,458.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked Panthers64c12,677$8,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,064.813560%21 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Panthers58c12,241$7,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,099.7844652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Panthers58c12,116$7,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,027.2819152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Saints44c11,364$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,363.645648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb84a…055dbacked Panthers75c11,000$8,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,2501741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Saints25c10,213$2,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,672.6650242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Panthers57c9,935$5,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,662.927657.9%44 W · 32 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+134.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Saints29c8,762$2,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,253.0573651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Saints41c8,611$3,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,097.927248.6%35 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Panthers59c8,474$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.6613560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Panthers65c8,084$5,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,287.516254.9%89 W · 73 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae6a…faf4backed Panthers56c8,000$4,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4802240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb433…7705backed Saints26c8,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,919.991723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Panthers44c7,421$3,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,238.2675852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1847…ebcfbacked Panthers59c6,552$3,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,865.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4350…a18abacked Saints41c6,549$2,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,864.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d9…ca67backed Saints36c6,400$2,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,114.143548.6%17 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+10.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Saints33c6,326$2,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,258.9119235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Panthers56c6,107$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,42011252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Panthers57c6,000$3,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,429.958351.8%43 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Saints43c6,000$2,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,419.9724053.8%129 W · 111 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eba…33bdbacked Panthers77c5,896$4,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,524.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2378…4ba4backed Saints42c5,382$2,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,119.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+137.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ef5…325ebacked Panthers56c5,357$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00011154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Saints27c5,265$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,853.5611643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf763…1b63backed Panthers59c5,140$3,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,032.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Panthers56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80014641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40ec…b146backed Panthers59c4,853$2,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,862.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Panthers56c4,732$2,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,673.862548%12 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Panthers70c4,664$3,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,281.023432.4%11 W · 23 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-31.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4fe1…4691backed Saints40c4,590$1,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,753.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Saints28c4,316$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,127.7916955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Panthers64c4,241$2,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,706.1231056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Panthers59c4,180$2,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,466.0631848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec0…f7aabacked Panthers59c4,152$2,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,466.24257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+29%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Panthers77c4,034$3,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,110.85939%23 W · 36 L-9.4wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-34.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Saints44c4,000$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,239.9934349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Panthers59c3,975$2,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,345.256852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Saints42c3,859$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,219.2811544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9210…a5f0backed Panthers57c3,770$2,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Saints43c3,720$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,120.437350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Saints42c3,500$1,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,040.8220646.1%95 W · 111 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Panthers57c3,408$1,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,942.8112152.1%63 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Panthers57c3,333$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90016737.7%63 W · 104 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Panthers60c3,333$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002556%14 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+29.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8f6…15fbbacked Panthers62c3,202$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Panthers73c2,876$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,094.5831543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Saints42c2,820$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,624.2413449.3%66 W · 68 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Saints40c2,780$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.0932050.9%163 W · 157 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21d8…ad91backed Panthers57c2,632$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5006045%27 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Panthers57c2,500$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42536246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c0…69d0backed Saints21c2,476$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,951.095549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Saints42c2,473$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,432.9713335.3%47 W · 86 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ae9…5b36backed Panthers57c2,460$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.2714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-71.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6cc7…cf77backed Panthers57c2,339$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3338144.4%36 W · 45 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad66…bcefbacked Panthers59c2,300$1,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,356.9820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Panthers1c2,222$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.224311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf386…3518backed Panthers78c2,210$1,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,731.410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Saints19c2,153$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.7812343.1%53 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Panthers56c2,143$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20012249.2%60 W · 62 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Panthers70c2,122$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.4419551.3%100 W · 95 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Saints26c2,091$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,542.7213435.8%48 W · 86 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Panthers59c2,044$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2005764.9%37 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Panthers58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16023937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Saints43c2,000$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.9239242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Panthers67c1,950$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2993470.6%24 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Saints41c1,946$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.1754451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b7e…20a7backed Saints41c1,900$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Saints70c1,827$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.251181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick67cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c2f…3794backed Panthers56c1,786$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008128.4%23 W · 58 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Saints38c1,732$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.0711446.5%53 W · 61 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x888b…2d66backed Panthers60c1,673$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.8560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Saints42c1,655$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.1965048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Saints71c1,594$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.0923244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe212…d5f4backed Panthers34c1,511$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.746850%34 W · 34 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Saints42c1,500$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8707530.7%23 W · 52 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Saints44c1,497$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.082334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.