NFL · resolved market
Spread: Panthers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3985cae5dc76c508601b38381afca04295d4e97fd3f2fa0898ef2eba5632b81c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Saintsof Panthers, Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Saints | 57c | 62,479$35,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,940.39 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Panthers | 43c | 50,000$21,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,500 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Panthers | 42c | 11,000$4,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,669.99 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Panthers | 42c | 9,038$3,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,795.91 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Saints | 58c | 9,000$5,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,780 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Panthers | 44c | 6,900$3,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,036 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Saints | 58c | 4,534$2,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925.92 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Saints | 56c | 4,237$2,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.49 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…dd3cbacked Saints | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760 | 141 | 48.2%68 W · 73 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…3794backed Panthers | 42c | 3,512$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.19 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Saints | 59c | 1,581$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.21 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Panthers | 51c | 1,280$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.8 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Panthers | 41c | 1,200$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Panthers | 44c | 1,111$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.77 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Panthers | 42c | 1,024$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.73 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Panthers | 44c | 1,000$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Saints | 49c | 760$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.6 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Panthers | 47c | 575.36$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.34 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Saints | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Panthers | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Panthers | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Saints | 49c | 387.08$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.41 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Saints | 58c | 380.87$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.57 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3327…11debacked Panthers | 45c | 311.11$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Saints | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Panthers | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Panthers | 44c | 220$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Saints | 59c | 203.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Saints | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Saints | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Saints | 49c | 165.44$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.86 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Saints | 60c | 132.79$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…f1bbbacked Saints | 38c | 127.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Panthers | 43c | 126.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Panthers | 40c | 121.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 205 | 57.6%118 W · 87 L | +16.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Saints | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Saints | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Panthers | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fadabacked Panthers | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Saints | 61c | 82.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Panthers | 62c | 77.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Panthers | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3629…85c5backed Saints | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0662…ff81backed Panthers | 43c | 64.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Saints | 57c | 64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…8754backed Saints | 57c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Saints | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x512f…6a7ebacked Panthers | 43c | 54.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Panthers | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8c…e115backed Panthers | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…79a8backed Panthers | 43c | 44.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dd…1417backed Panthers | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…de01backed Panthers | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Saints | 59c | 39.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03fc…a8e6backed Saints | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee5…cd39backed Panthers | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Panthers | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…4952backed Panthers | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Panthers | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Saints | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a79…ead0backed Panthers | 45c | 22.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Panthers | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Panthers (-3.5)this page
- Panthers vs. SaintsSaints won
- Panthers vs. Saints: O/U 27.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Saints: O/U 30.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Saints: O/U 33.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Saints: O/U 39.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Saints: O/U 40.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Saints: O/U 41.5Under won
- Spread: Panthers (-2.5)Saints won
- Spread: Panthers (-4.5)Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.