NFL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Saints: O/U 39.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6db44057c462158c891c013e02cba72db150911265d520b4a8b52feeb9cd80bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 56c | 31,974$17,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,202.99 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -6.3wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Over | 55c | 23,103$12,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,706.75 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 44c | 18,462$8,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,123.21 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 44c | 18,233$8,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,131.91 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 45c | 6,257$2,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,834.51 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 5,614$2,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,095.6 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Over | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 45c | 1,500$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.99 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 57c | 1,379$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.76 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 1,239$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.76 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 1,045$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.75 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 530.46$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.19 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…3779backed Over | 56c | 358$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.48 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddb…51adbacked Over | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…fe30backed Over | 56c | 218.96$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.62 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 58c | 215.52$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 46c | 129.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7148…8fbfbacked Over | 58c | 129.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Over | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…cf43backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Over | 56c | 57.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 46c | 57.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…f838backed Over | 56c | 45.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…9aa5backed Over | 58c | 41.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebd3…c5f4backed Over | 56c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed57…e0a0backed Over | 56c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63ba…12d4backed Over | 58c | 28.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3809…d0e7backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3f0abacked Over | 56c | 23.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf995…307abacked Over | 56c | 22.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Saints: O/U 39.5this page
- Panthers vs. SaintsSaints won
- Panthers vs. Saints: O/U 27.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Saints: O/U 30.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Saints: O/U 33.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Saints: O/U 40.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Saints: O/U 41.5Under won
- Spread: Panthers (-2.5)Saints won
- Spread: Panthers (-3.5)Saints won
- Spread: Panthers (-4.5)Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.