AI · resolved market
Will no acquisition occur by May 31 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf74a6e2939a7aa873b2c28f4547ea4968e72b99a5fb644486c3f1e469bf1b354
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bdc…2b7dbacked Yes | 21c | 10,730$2,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,253.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcec…9ffdbacked Yes | 3c | 7,979$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3960…2660backed No | 79c | 5,355$4,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,055$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdd…11e1backed No | 79c | 2,708$2,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd997…4ca8backed No | 79c | 2,667$2,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,539$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.53 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…b278backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d38…4cabbacked Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…29a4backed Yes | 9c | 999.98$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0be…c460backed No | 71c | 280$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…488bbacked Yes | 5c | 251.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…5148backed No | 71c | 239$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…9a7abacked No | 71c | 238$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 15c | 168.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…148cbacked Yes | 14c | 146.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2446…64e2backed No | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee3…e81bbacked No | 71c | 138$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 21c | 98.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will no acquisition occur by May 31 2026?this page
- Will Amazon acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?No won
- Will Comcast acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?No won
- Will Netflix acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?Yes won
- Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.