TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Netflix acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,365
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$101,471

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,365 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x99cc…cdcebacked No2c10,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde14…72dabacked No2c9,641$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd121…99debacked No0c7,703$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfce5…4360backed No0c4,981$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No0c3,783$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.921,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7643…d609backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f9b…0029backed No15c865.18$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.25128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick29cpaid-80.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No5c780$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6612639.7%50 W · 76 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed No5c630$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.02323.1%1 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick15cpaid-92.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes36c513.31$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.875046%23 W · 27 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No7c469.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.752560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No13c443.46$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.315940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes41c391.02$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.14560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d4…494dbacked Yes30c299.98$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.99580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+60.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd87…dd8bbacked No17c235.54$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.86425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b71…f1d9backed No26c168$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.831216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-48.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x27f4…0430backed Yes74c168$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.851154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No14c150.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.392110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes8c150.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.421643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+166.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef90…14bcbacked No13c150$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.05540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No29c149.08$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.82850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked No55c147.79$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.94052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No67c128.09$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.715452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes46c124.04$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf500…b87bbacked Yes12c123.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+721.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf94f…393dbacked Yes80c120$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.36475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e17…c6b5backed No26c118$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.81250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77ff…3b59backed Yes29c109.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c08…e7b6backed Yes21c96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.89560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+83.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd188…ae31backed Yes16c83.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+220.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82cc…236fbacked No18c81.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked No13c80$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.565521.8%12 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c85…0790backed Yes75c79.85$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No40c68.83$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1920148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No26c68.16$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4921125.6%54 W · 157 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed No19c67.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.53748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b87…aa96backed No18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb890…a592backed Yes74c59$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+31.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab1c…5722backed Yes74c53.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No22c51.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.128828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3288…77d1backed Yes33c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.552100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+142.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed Yes33c48.45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.45616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bae…8200backed Yes74c37.66$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.83580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+108.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6183…3834backed No67c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.754032.5%13 W · 27 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes76c21.46$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1514355.2%79 W · 64 L+16.6wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+24.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc12b…463cbacked Yes80c18.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.