AI · resolved market
Will Netflix acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf47c4d7b7c309632b81422bba649893dfbc238fd48ad79c76ed30ecabf75b7f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99cc…cdcebacked No | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde14…72dabacked No | 2c | 9,641$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…99debacked No | 0c | 7,703$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce5…4360backed No | 0c | 4,981$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 3,783$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7643…d609backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…0029backed No | 15c | 865.18$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 5c | 780$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 5c | 630$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 36c | 513.31$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.87 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 7c | 469.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 13c | 443.46$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes | 41c | 391.02$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…494dbacked Yes | 30c | 299.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked No | 17c | 235.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f1d9backed No | 26c | 168$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed Yes | 74c | 168$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 14c | 150.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 8c | 150.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.42 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef90…14bcbacked No | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 29c | 149.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 55c | 147.79$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 128.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes | 46c | 124.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf500…b87bbacked Yes | 12c | 123.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +721.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf94f…393dbacked Yes | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…c6b5backed No | 26c | 118$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ff…3b59backed Yes | 29c | 109.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed Yes | 21c | 96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…ae31backed Yes | 16c | 83.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +220.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…236fbacked No | 18c | 81.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked No | 13c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c85…0790backed Yes | 75c | 79.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 40c | 68.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 26c | 68.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 19c | 67.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…aa96backed No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…a592backed Yes | 74c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…5722backed Yes | 74c | 53.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 22c | 51.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…77d1backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Yes | 33c | 48.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bae…8200backed Yes | 74c | 37.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…3834backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 76c | 21.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc12b…463cbacked Yes | 80c | 18.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?this page
- Will Amazon acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?No won
- Will Comcast acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?No won
- Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?No won
- Will no acquisition occur by May 31 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.