China Taiwan · resolved market
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa2fe71de6a4121dad1e599542e29f18f2da8c3107c8d13ca8c2c998e864a930
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…7c38backed Yes | 1c | 748.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 6c | 577.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9798…01e0backed Yes | 3c | 538$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 8c | 533.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…bf82backed Yes | 5c | 289.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 69c | 262.73$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 9c | 210$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 29c | 199.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb0…12d0backed Yes | 11c | 187.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…91c2backed Yes | 6c | 161.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 43c | 140.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 73c | 135.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 18c | 135.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +43%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…7ee1backed Yes | 39c | 102.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 10c | 100.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…3e95backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 25c | 84.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked No | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…cf1fbacked No | 79c | 53.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…9d95backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…d4b6backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 30?this page
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on April 30?Yes won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 20% and 50% on April 30?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 30?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 50% and 75% on April 30?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 75% and 100% on April 30?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be more than 300% on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.