China Taiwan · resolved market
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e19a9159dc7710a8aecf24fbd2cedf01bd77baaf14aeedbbe9091b75dcdf319
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 4c | 767.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 589.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a61…c2f2backed Yes | 4c | 550.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…ab83backed Yes | 14c | 514.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 11c | 450$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f6…d8cdbacked Yes | 30c | 400.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 7c | 307.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +43%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 5c | 252$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…dba5backed Yes | 6c | 251.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…4e67backed Yes | 8c | 250.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da1…b8e3backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…b23ebacked Yes | 8c | 156.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 9c | 156.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 66c | 121.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 12c | 103.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb0…12d0backed Yes | 22c | 101.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked Yes | 19c | 101.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…47bdbacked No | 77c | 84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53a…d413backed Yes | 26c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5428…d8d9backed Yes | 34c | 44.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 30?this page
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on April 30?Yes won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 30?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 20% and 50% on April 30?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 50% and 75% on April 30?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 75% and 100% on April 30?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be more than 300% on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.