China Taiwan · resolved market
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ded24e43b37ca583dc01a901c6e511fb22bc1df478c004f67928e0f70b296ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $224,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $228,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaeb7…d83abacked Yes | 64c | 58,822$37,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,175.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…8358backed No | 36c | 58,822$21,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,175.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4e…7c57backed No | 42c | 35,631$14,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,965.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…26bbbacked Yes | 58c | 35,631$20,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,965.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 55c | 3,501$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 36c | 1,636$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 26c | 1,602$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 28c | 982.16$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.83 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ae…8072backed Yes | 64c | 810$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 29c | 801.09$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 37c | 797$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 71c | 747.84$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 72c | 714.32$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 41c | 696$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 71c | 680$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 39c | 557.35$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 62c | 499.99$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 19c | 494$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 38c | 491.91$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 20c | 476$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 38c | 438.46$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.61 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 318.02$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.45 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 52c | 299.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 27c | 299.1$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 24c | 239$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 73c | 222$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes | 78c | 218$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 19c | 217$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x583b…2ef1backed Yes | 74c | 216.36$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 72c | 174.01$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…7ee1backed Yes | 51c | 153.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…2e90backed Yes | 69c | 145.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 42c | 141.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 26c | 125$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes | 25c | 101.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…04e2backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 45c | 92.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7e…a160backed Yes | 38c | 81.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +161.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…f347backed No | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked No | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 60c | 73.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +161.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 61c | 70.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 72c | 69.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 49c | 63.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74fb…d10ebacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9da…e668backed Yes | 60c | 57.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 57c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c58…b852backed No | 42c | 56.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…ec78backed No | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…a055backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked Yes | 42c | 52.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 45c | 50.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bda…9966backed No | 49c | 50.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb04…6deabacked Yes | 39c | 50.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88a…92f7backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 77c | 49.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…91c2backed Yes | 43c | 26.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x337c…d21dbacked Yes | 64c | 20.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on April 30?this page
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 30?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 20% and 50% on April 30?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 30?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 50% and 75% on April 30?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 75% and 100% on April 30?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be more than 300% on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.