World Politics · resolved market
Will Naleraq win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2c79dad2029392575dad968e660967434a0c1288c38673e06d6196706dd96ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $308,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $193,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $308,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31c0…9cb4backed Yes | 1c | 39,500$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…2737backed Yes | 1c | 23,050$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +380.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…4981backed Yes | 1c | 8,300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 1c | 6,468$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.45 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 1c | 6,447$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 1c | 3,924$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 5c | 3,906$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.06 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 3,569$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 26c | 2,706$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.71 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 6c | 1,869$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.64 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed No | 73c | 1,746$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.18 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 13c | 1,672$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.1 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a3…f796backed Yes | 3c | 1,446$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…e7eebacked Yes | 8c | 1,341$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 19c | 1,219$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.71 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 3c | 1,205$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 2c | 1,051$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 32c | 1,034$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.11 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542b…4b76backed Yes | 39c | 775.47$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 708.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 525$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…d154backed Yes | 20c | 484.25$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…47bdbacked No | 68c | 312.3$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 11c | 264.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 5c | 219.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 18c | 216.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 28c | 213$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 6c | 210.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 34c | 202.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +285.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…b17ebacked Yes | 20c | 166.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0166…af99backed Yes | 41c | 122.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed No | 71c | 121.39$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed0…77f7backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 24c | 83.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Naleraq win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?this page
- Will Atassut win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?No won
- Will Democrats win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will Inuit Ataqatigiit win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?No won
- Will Siumut win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.