World Politics · resolved market
Will Siumut win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x067909f05e7d984c11a70920e3bc1a3557caff03caf535b3e49591078ab5c669
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 0c | 22,070$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 4,483$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.62 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 4c | 3,723$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.03 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,403$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 2c | 1,264$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,250$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…d154backed Yes | 3c | 1,171$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9308…e2f5backed Yes | 3c | 1,064$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Yes | 5c | 927.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 3c | 791.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 3c | 765$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 2c | 744.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…ab13backed Yes | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0166…af99backed Yes | 3c | 567.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 539.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…e7eebacked Yes | 4c | 345$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 37c | 292.26$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 9c | 243.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 35c | 199.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71eb…5c5abacked Yes | 14c | 122.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 34c | 56.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Siumut win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?this page
- Will Atassut win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?No won
- Will Democrats win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will Inuit Ataqatigiit win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?No won
- Will Naleraq win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.