World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump congratulate Canada election winner by Tuesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa750ac8a4f0a6b12cc18dc4e88b60597e95be12fabf758ec4b6f4f0b037c0987
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +90%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c594backed No | 79c | 390.06$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 29c | 379.15$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.79 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 45c | 270.5$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.82 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked No | 34c | 240.25$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…4fa1backed No | 38c | 203.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c48…3299backed No | 50c | 199.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 27c | 178.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked No | 48c | 148.37$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 53c | 138.31$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…7b9abacked Yes | 71c | 117.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 64c | 116.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4d…f7dbbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb896…8d88backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed No | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 42c | 88.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 52c | 82.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed Yes | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 53c | 76.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 44c | 73.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 53c | 72.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 66c | 68.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 48c | 61.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 72c | 48.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked No | 75c | 44.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…5b09backed No | 42c | 35.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 41c | 34.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…ca3abacked Yes | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7d…ff48backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…2dc2backed No | 36c | 28.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…ed73backed Yes | 52c | 21.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed No | 78c | 18.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.