Us Politics · resolved market
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2e718b1b827bf996611f43405ffe1a796acb77b0b8821fa1feb879ceee1acc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 6c | 8,890$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.25 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 12c | 3,644$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.66 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed No | 76c | 3,027$2,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.79 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 11c | 2,977$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.04 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69aa…d0ddbacked Yes | 65c | 2,974$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,934.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 21c | 2,050$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.02 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 20c | 1,726$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.65 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7f…400dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,606$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 11c | 1,595$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.48 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 70c | 1,254$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.75 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 1,204$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,126$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 13c | 998.21$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.77 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed Yes | 14c | 992.61$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.35 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 11c | 984.69$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.7 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 917.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc280…de71backed Yes | 11c | 819.86$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 12c | 711.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 22c | 656.09$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.46 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…9a08backed Yes | 52c | 613.3$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2162…f0b1backed Yes | 23c | 540$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…009fbacked Yes | 19c | 525$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd863…4df2backed Yes | 26c | 503.69$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.09 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 80c | 460.8$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…4f10backed Yes | 22c | 452.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3012…63babacked Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…c77fbacked Yes | 11c | 426.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…9adabacked Yes | 17c | 425$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 23c | 419$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…1b55backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 9c | 339$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6b…9390backed Yes | 15c | 335.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 7c | 325$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 12c | 302$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 298.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a7…438dbacked Yes | 21c | 292.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…e955backed Yes | 11c | 260$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2a…260abacked Yes | 19c | 244.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 14c | 222.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 210$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 9c | 200.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…fcc2backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…53bcbacked No | 70c | 174$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Yes | 11c | 173.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc13…523ebacked Yes | 16c | 170.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 11c | 155$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36c8…3603backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 20c | 125.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 118.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 79c | 117.5$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 79.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 70c | 65.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 57.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.