Tweets · resolved market
Will Kanye tweet 100-199 times February 20-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83d425263a3c0cf452545f9fae679d569d8c4753d63592d39da3e05c223ed989
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $233,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $239,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $233,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20e8…b663backed Yes | 30c | 101,620$30,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71,134 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4384…bb5ebacked No | 70c | 101,589$71,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71,112.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 14c | 900$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x978a…91b0backed No | 2c | 885$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…c76ebacked Yes | 23c | 723.1$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +333.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c3…fcd6backed Yes | 29c | 611.57$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +201.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed No | 4c | 540.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…1386backed No | 21c | 478$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385b…349fbacked No | 25c | 410.18$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 19c | 362.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.39 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a2…8c84backed No | 17c | 352.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked No | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c5…20debacked Yes | 79c | 253.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 18c | 248.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.73 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…4c0bbacked No | 80c | 194.11$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc3fbacked Yes | 27c | 185.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +271.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 38c | 176.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.02 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7918…8c2abacked No | 17c | 175.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 66c | 120.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 22c | 120.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…41c5backed Yes | 11c | 115.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 17c | 101.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.28 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 13cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c87…f49ebacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe359…2feabacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked Yes | 45c | 88.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed66…caccbacked Yes | 18c | 73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fae…1675backed Yes | 51c | 61.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…c55ebacked Yes | 19c | 52.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +419.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 54c | 51.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 64c | 31.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kanye tweet 100-199 times February 20-28?this page
- Will Kanye tweet 10-49 times February 20-28?No won
- Will Kanye tweet 200-399 times February 20-28?No won
- Will Kanye tweet 400 or more times February 20-28?No won
- Will Kanye tweet 50-99 times February 20-28?No won
- Will Kanye tweet less than 10 times February 20-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.