Tweets · resolved market
Will Kanye tweet 200-399 times February 20-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca3499d7a77b6b1d7b7b50681c16cf2214589eef0ea5b4f2923d14d1d01f61e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,670$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.27 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a2…8c84backed Yes | 7c | 560.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked Yes | 37c | 405.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 399.95$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked Yes | 32c | 399.07$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.65 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 33c | 362.64$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.47 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…db01backed No | 68c | 299.01$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 249.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 45c | 241.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 185$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 64c | 183.12$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63c3…fcd6backed No | 39c | 137.29$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +201.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x687f…cefebacked Yes | 71c | 132.78$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 28c | 108.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 53c | 98.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 36c | 70.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked No | 53c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8e…ed5dbacked Yes | 64c | 44.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d37…a0b2backed Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 33c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf654…1fbbbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 54c | 36.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…ebf7backed Yes | 36c | 34.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 69c | 32.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc5…cca8backed No | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…9964backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 75c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kanye tweet 200-399 times February 20-28?this page
- Will Kanye tweet 10-49 times February 20-28?No won
- Will Kanye tweet 100-199 times February 20-28?Yes won
- Will Kanye tweet 400 or more times February 20-28?No won
- Will Kanye tweet 50-99 times February 20-28?No won
- Will Kanye tweet less than 10 times February 20-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.