Tweets · resolved market
Will Kanye tweet 400 or more times February 20-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7ec2eaf2d1fe568fd35ff29f33b9bdf96f3c4aa53db4bb34aa0c58d508c2092
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,683$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 60c | 1,791$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed Yes | 27c | 1,657$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 40c | 1,095$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 1,043$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…db01backed Yes | 13c | 961.73$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.12 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 49c | 550$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.61 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 461.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked No | 45c | 458.82$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.01 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 370.44$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.32 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 37c | 362.64$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.68 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 40c | 276.29$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.77 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 51c | 268$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.55 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…2610backed Yes | 49c | 208.04$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.58 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 39c | 187$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.07 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…64f8backed Yes | 43c | 179.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5677backed Yes | 61c | 169.43$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 28c | 158.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 16c | 149.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 53c | 122.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 37c | 115$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf595…0aefbacked No | 38c | 115$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0a…3dbcbacked Yes | 62c | 101$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 69c | 90.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d79…6774backed Yes | 62c | 84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 49c | 78.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d37…a0b2backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…6013backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 57c | 29.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…061abacked No | 38c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…212ebacked No | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…d109backed Yes | 77c | 20.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b6…93e9backed Yes | 62c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…1493backed Yes | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kanye tweet 400 or more times February 20-28?this page
- Will Kanye tweet 10-49 times February 20-28?No won
- Will Kanye tweet 100-199 times February 20-28?Yes won
- Will Kanye tweet 200-399 times February 20-28?No won
- Will Kanye tweet 50-99 times February 20-28?No won
- Will Kanye tweet less than 10 times February 20-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.