Music · resolved market
A$AP Rocky convicted of a felony?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa55dd7974e1e89d8bc416836e2d9615739540d3531280d175833af654b599fe2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84dd…8701backed No | 48c | 1,469$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 75c | 460.53$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 70c | 250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Yes | 37c | 232.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 50c | 195.14$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…4554backed No | 48c | 140.42$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 139.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.86 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed No | 59c | 123.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 29c | 115.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 65c | 74.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 73c | 55.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb7…f16dbacked No | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 32c | 46.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…2fd5backed Yes | 66c | 44.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…d879backed Yes | 45c | 43.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 67c | 43.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 64c | 38.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d12…caf8backed No | 42c | 37.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 36c | 35.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 49c | 31.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 61c | 28.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x754e…e92abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 71c | 19.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…8778backed Yes | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.