World Politics · resolved market
Canada tariffs on U.S. in effect by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce01f2cbb9f4879e3c177abe70167c9ff0d4f0e013db9b39e8e5a18401713571
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 1c | 5,365$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1397…f763backed No | 2c | 3,989$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 1c | 3,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8d…1df6backed No | 1c | 691.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 80c | 295.52$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 61c | 182.28$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 74c | 164.62$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 17c | 138.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed No | 11c | 128.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 9c | 123$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc2…518dbacked No | 20c | 103.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e51…2e97backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 24c | 97.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc280…de71backed No | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 17c | 88.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…9056backed Yes | 78c | 47.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…3e5fbacked Yes | 79c | 39.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd62…2b7ebacked No | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd1…0310backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…e698backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.