Ukraine · resolved market
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50367d046344f1a4c48dd9754792e6bbc4dd3b677987a40bd023c170a1ce52ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 8,884$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.87 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 10c | 5,596$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.2 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 14c | 3,913$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.95 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…2aebbacked Yes | 7c | 3,379$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,009$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…f15bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,640$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 13c | 2,252$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 4c | 2,150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 12c | 2,083$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 7c | 2,005$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.32 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,643$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 65 | 1.5%1 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 2c | 1,386$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 2c | 1,312$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 4c | 1,110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…c0eebacked Yes | 5c | 1,065$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1557…8e9fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,060$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a45…d5f8backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x959a…b1afbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…62e0backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…cc60backed Yes | 5c | 999.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 3c | 996.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…6e95backed Yes | 2c | 858.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b7…b91ebacked Yes | 17c | 808.5$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 791.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 759.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75b…672ebacked Yes | 7c | 706.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 643.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…8eefbacked Yes | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 542.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 12c | 504.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Yes | 2c | 499.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 9c | 466.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…dcb5backed Yes | 7c | 431.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes | 5c | 399.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 13c | 390$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…bc54backed Yes | 6c | 367$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 10c | 333$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…5666backed Yes | 5c | 322.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed Yes | 6c | 317.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed Yes | 13c | 202.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9434…187cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387f…158abacked Yes | 7c | 179.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2d…bb34backed Yes | 14c | 158.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 12c | 136.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…4693backed Yes | 7c | 135.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x498d…803bbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…c15bbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Yes | 13c | 100.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 77c | 38.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 47c | 36.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…511ebacked No | 75c | 34.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.