Token Launches · resolved market
Will Kanye meet with Ansem by next Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xade6993e48d2158c6e158860109a0fd247d9cabe75784b7b3f61a259ea1e49e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 1c | 2,284$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 1c | 1,428$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292f…76d8backed Yes | 16c | 1,007$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +538.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2432…ae39backed Yes | 16c | 634.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 17c | 588$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.32per pick | 12cpaid | +985.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 19c | 454.23$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 19c | 350.27$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.46 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…aa40backed No | 78c | 250$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 17c | 211.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 18c | 174.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.84 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 155.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.35 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed Yes | 17c | 137$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 13c | 123$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.01 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…decdbacked No | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ef…f907backed Yes | 20c | 99.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +397.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 24c | 78.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…575dbacked No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.