TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Kilmar Abrego Garcia released from custody before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$74,208
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,527

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,208 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes53c3,709$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,966.5211428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No16c3,330$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,782.8916535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes26c2,946$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.832544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes57c2,817$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,596.092941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes15c2,397$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36616544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0da2…59e7backed Yes15c2,052$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.970%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No41c1,826$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.996028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No68c1,590$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.810950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf23a…d3f8backed No73c1,549$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.961181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick63cpaid+42.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed No55c1,220$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5492263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf861…681fbacked Yes12c1,209$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.281421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick36cpaid+30.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80cf…614dbacked Yes10c1,202$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.133033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes27c1,141$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.972429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-52.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes16c1,113$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.3139522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c1,098$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.961,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes39c1,068$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.3741238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes12c1,050$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1318725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No73c905.7$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.611336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes9c900$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846526.2%17 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes13c838.29$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.183417.6%6 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ba2…eaa7backed Yes32c800.01$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.061258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes15c748.58$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5614819.6%29 W · 119 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked No10c702.94$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.827244.4%32 W · 40 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb782…955cbacked Yes26c602.43$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.79742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb277…d809backed Yes12c585.53$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.273351.5%17 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+38.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes29c576.24$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.872638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes15c524.42$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.376618.2%12 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010145.5%46 W · 55 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No50c469.61$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.8112630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes22c451.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4516854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes40c451.11$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.1123543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ab5…1d6ebacked Yes23c438.52$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.231566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+46.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes47c426.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015243.4%66 W · 86 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes11c331.88$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.645928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes12c330$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.313138.9%51 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes10c287.89$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.791118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-58.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes7c267$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.698229.3%24 W · 58 L-11.1wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-40.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe424…0d1abacked Yes19c260.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes19c250.06$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6456733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed No40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15012643.7%55 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed No69c243$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.299846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes28c233.42$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.941936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes33c231$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.219557.9%55 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes10c225$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6618322.4%41 W · 142 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes23c223.07$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0199629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes17c215.44$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6333627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.56246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x677d…ae46backed Yes12c198.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-47.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes24c190.72$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5524035.4%85 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87cd…6f2abacked No72c178$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.836058.3%35 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes6c167$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.582154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No75c141.1$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.28169.1%56 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8196…ab69backed No79c139.48$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.185532.7%18 W · 37 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62d5…78d1backed No78c139.05$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.057672.4%55 W · 21 L+14.7wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+36.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x3c76…d4eebacked No42c135.84$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.343467.6%23 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed No63c135.21$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.037646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cd7…0643backed No77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.872544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed No73c124.88$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9210338.8%40 W · 63 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0af4…89b4backed No61c124.63$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.074562.2%28 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x008e…a11cbacked No73c121.23$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed Yes76c104.61$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806858.8%40 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+21.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3cf…4de3backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes13c99.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0218033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes18c92.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.111,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No72c86.62$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0610244.1%45 W · 57 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cab…7222backed Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b4…2294backed No74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.573100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked No76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.79450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e1f…aa60backed No77c58.21$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.213540%14 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84bd…66c7backed Yes33c51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.83425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310137.6%38 W · 63 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No31c43.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3037844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes60c43.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0819435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c2…077cbacked No58c38.72$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.26862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+81.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x34a2…cd92backed No58c34.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.69650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf831…b887backed No64c31.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.02540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-36.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No46c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2617544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa129…57c3backed Yes48c27.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78ec…2d07backed No74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.032245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cbf…2bdebacked No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.674055%22 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51e5…a0d7backed No79c26.58$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.58650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes52c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1314135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92ea…ff82backed No68c20.87$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick39cpaid+53.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb87…e878backed No66c18.08$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.