TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$287,498
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$275,453

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $287,498 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes3c85,463$2,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,447.492516%4 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cc7…8a27backed Yes18c16,162$2,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,947.953836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cdd…2916backed Yes2c13,649$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.07812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-35.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No75c11,594$8,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,929.9535347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes39c7,108$2,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,772.188450%42 W · 42 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes13c7,084$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.740433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bb8…49bfbacked Yes16c4,929$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.75560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3cb…56b5backed Yes31c4,489$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.382462.5%15 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+22.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1e02…b56dbacked Yes12c4,354$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.652626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes31c4,217$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.296726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked No80c4,000$3,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81012245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fda…5b87backed Yes8c3,963$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.867940.5%32 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No57c3,868$2,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,656.8251138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes29c3,839$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.5233337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd76a…79acbacked Yes11c3,595$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.753125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes20c3,552$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.8334440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b24…2e06backed Yes16c3,533$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.35560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa94d…415fbacked No58c3,431$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.742100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+233.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No4c3,076$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,956.041631.3%5 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.24per pick7cpaid+413.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes13c2,700$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3472850%14 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xec0b…69e6backed Yes28c2,347$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6507751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes11c1,787$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.9320617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes12c1,650$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.6824234.3%83 W · 159 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4956…e2c7backed Yes33c1,525$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-11.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes15c1,517$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.75110%0 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e38…1b55backed No61c1,497$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.81435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50c0…e601backed Yes27c1,345$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.831822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked No73c1,313$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.785642.9%24 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0efc…8e2fbacked No61c1,297$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.291163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffc1…9a12backed Yes1c1,289$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.891233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80ca…2bf7backed Yes8c1,251$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002623.1%6 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf960…ba50backed Yes17c1,194$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.741560%9 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x840a…d481backed Yes29c1,157$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes19c1,059$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.5717530.9%54 W · 121 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x210f…9d6abacked Yes13c1,040$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.082065%13 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick42cpaid+120.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe49e…55e3backed Yes40c1,002$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+56.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef90…da0ebacked Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Yes8c984.57$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.972821.4%6 W · 22 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-56.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes23c891.36$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.6810444.2%46 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed No53c865.34$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.2910151.5%52 W · 49 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+35.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf385…4864backed Yes33c854$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2841050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6577…2660backed Yes74c826.8$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x358a…d45fbacked No64c795.34$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.541070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes66c773.03$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.4815626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No13c762$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.185127.5%14 W · 37 L+7.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+151%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No13c762$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.185330.2%16 W · 37 L+8.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+154.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No79c700$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.087051.4%36 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c650.35$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.521,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a0d…2a33backed Yes16c648.85$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.93745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa591…9079backed Yes33c627.88$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.536965.2%45 W · 24 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes23c610$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.32548%12 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4391…fe64backed Yes6c596.72$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No76c584.23$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.8228750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No33c535.04$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.0927643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9e…547dbacked No65c532.99$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.081338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes5c518.64$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.023228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes20c502$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.223525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed No53c493.54$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.73339.4%13 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+106%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes20c492.66$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.157728.6%22 W · 55 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3663…5a1cbacked Yes10c462.82$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes18c461.51$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.563644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8392…e3a2backed Yes7c420.81$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3114420.8%30 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No31c404.85$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.977247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes20c401.51$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.340828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd060…c0d8backed Yes19c399.38$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee07…0647backed Yes13c389.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502035%7 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes26c375.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.085332.1%17 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4e…edb0backed No36c357.13$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.638725.3%22 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8af5…36afbacked No54c350$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.5837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa842…e305backed Yes29c341.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011329.2%33 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-37.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No72c321.2$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.2411851.7%61 W · 57 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes7c315.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3426616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c298.52$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.477636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No79c284.17$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4727233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd118…a96dbacked Yes15c280$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.242245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes16c280$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2425518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x251b…143cbacked No67c275.68$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-62.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64f4…f0c5backed No80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No64c245.23$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.3127047.8%129 W · 141 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa782…0c57backed No80c245$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa868…58dfbacked No80c240$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e8…3c90backed No54c240$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4228…964ebacked No80c240$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d17…44c2backed Yes6c230.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed No56c223$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.8619445.9%89 W · 105 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes24c215.34$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5189617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes11c212.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4943212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes12c200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.815324.8%38 W · 115 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…3ddabacked No79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423053.3%16 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-13.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5463…f01dbacked No64c195.01$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e40…f622backed Yes11c182.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205825.9%15 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1137…7553backed No80c150$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No34c150$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9916061.9%99 W · 61 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c18…ea97backed Yes50c140$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No57c134.88$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.433154.8%17 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c8d…e564backed No75c132.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.78650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No53c131.71$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7110451%53 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes19c131.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.720247%95 W · 107 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes34c128.55$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.064318.6%8 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa55e…4660backed No79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.582152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.