Token Launches · resolved market
Will Dave Portnoy launch a coin before March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8afc47b527ae83eab6815ad341182c06f62a98da48575bd6aa006f958287c94b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $237,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $200,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $237,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 0c | 25,218$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 1c | 18,698$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7011…c6dabacked No | 2c | 17,045$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed No | 1c | 13,682$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 55c | 13,205$7,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,214.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…091cbacked Yes | 11c | 12,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,679.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 0c | 10,015$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d0…be18backed No | 77c | 10,000$7,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,699.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7be…cc5cbacked No | 1c | 8,123$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed No | 0c | 6,346$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 1c | 5,799$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 1c | 5,714$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 4c | 5,453$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.87 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba2b…2d9fbacked Yes | 29c | 5,370$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,797.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +241.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 23c | 4,393$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.74 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…c2b3backed Yes | 61c | 4,054$2,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 5c | 3,822$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.51 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked No | 1c | 3,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845d…620fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,946$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +338.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6521…27b9backed No | 1c | 1,874$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…7f75backed Yes | 40c | 1,608$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 13c | 1,523$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +218.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37b…3802backed No | 68c | 1,422$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…572cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,238$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…b435backed No | 77c | 1,213$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b9…c9c8backed Yes | 23c | 1,210$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 74c | 1,150$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.03 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 13c | 1,109$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 28cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…9236backed Yes | 11c | 989.64$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +812.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798c…56d8backed Yes | 12c | 762.89$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +747.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 18c | 745.77$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.92 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6c…119fbacked No | 6c | 628.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +530.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a3…5adabacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…de48backed No | 68c | 443$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d49…266cbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 34c | 397.73$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.23 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce4f…ceaabacked Yes | 64c | 356.14$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…b1e6backed Yes | 14c | 355.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 6c | 302.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…413fbacked No | 58c | 273.74$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8e…ed5dbacked Yes | 42c | 260.1$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e0…b444backed Yes | 29c | 247.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +240.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 216.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.75 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb12…afb2backed No | 73c | 205.48$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 78c | 196.4$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 17c | 192.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.11 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 71c | 170.44$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca1…406ebacked Yes | 13c | 167.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb869…c4c6backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfffd…3c2bbacked No | 72c | 137.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…e408backed Yes | 37c | 132.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe910…8000backed No | 79c | 126.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…575dbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 9c | 114.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.17 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…0dc6backed Yes | 21c | 105$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +377.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…db25backed Yes | 23c | 104.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…30edbacked Yes | 50c | 100.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f16…5e55backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…e300backed Yes | 18c | 95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +458.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 40c | 92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d75…5da0backed No | 59c | 84.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…5755backed No | 76c | 82.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 21c | 79.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…f427backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +147%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 35c | 60.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0b…f3e3backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…3f66backed No | 70c | 57.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a5…877dbacked Yes | 27c | 48.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked No | 61c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…e343backed No | 59c | 45.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…18f4backed No | 51c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…a223backed Yes | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c0…009ebacked Yes | 41c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 59cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.