Tweets · resolved market
Will Kanye tweet between 200-249 times February 8-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c1043c64737b78c988d81d1a0dce1e6badd1f655dcb0f6062b4f21a16ab8ca8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $239,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $240,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 0c | 114,481$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 13c | 9,771$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.62 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 4c | 8,838$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 13c | 8,543$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.71 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 6c | 5,279$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.89 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 20c | 3,243$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.74 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 80c | 2,812$2,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 2c | 2,222$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed No | 10c | 2,211$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.06 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 5c | 1,741$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6615…665dbacked No | 4c | 1,368$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed No | 14c | 1,231$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.32 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 71c | 1,000$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…a622backed Yes | 80c | 935.86$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…ba26backed Yes | 2c | 773.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +636.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 67c | 765$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.43 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 18c | 730.33$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.41 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked No | 19c | 691.73$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.83 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 9c | 676.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…7dd2backed Yes | 80c | 574.02$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed No | 36c | 534.51$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.12 | 181 | 18.8%34 W · 147 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…fa2cbacked Yes | 6c | 504$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,637.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee56…bba5backed No | 3c | 480.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 15c | 453.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 11c | 440$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x284f…31efbacked No | 5c | 399.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 77c | 387.39$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 34c | 372.09$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.67 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd803…1362backed No | 22c | 365.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed No | 19c | 346.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked No | 49c | 330$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 7c | 326.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7d…dc90backed No | 6c | 311.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed No | 7c | 299.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2e…515cbacked No | 20c | 294$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 32c | 286.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Yes | 12c | 286$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +744.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 19c | 285.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 68c | 275$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 13c | 241.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 70c | 200$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c01…a351backed No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…9c2ebacked No | 16c | 193.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 31c | 180.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbe…ee8dbacked No | 7c | 172.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 12c | 166.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed Yes | 20c | 158.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.46 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4256…b85ebacked Yes | 79c | 154$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +487.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdc…9550backed Yes | 80c | 148$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 130.94$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 39c | 120$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed No | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed No | 19c | 115.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 77c | 106.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…f1b3backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 70c | 90.77$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 20c | 89.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 66c | 83.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +165%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8e…962bbacked No | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 20c | 68.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…8316backed No | 31c | 65.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4038…ca66backed Yes | 80c | 63.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…8b52backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…cbc5backed Yes | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cf…865cbacked Yes | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0757…2720backed Yes | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64fb…776abacked Yes | 80c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2611…c00ebacked Yes | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kanye tweet between 200-249 times February 8-14?this page
- Will Kanye tweet 700 or more times February 8-14?No won
- Will Kanye tweet between 250-299 times February 8-14?No won
- Will Kanye tweet between 300-349 times February 8-14?No won
- Will Kanye tweet between 350-399 times February 8-14?No won
- Will Kanye tweet between 400-449 times February 8-14?No won
- Will Kanye tweet between 450-499 times February 8-14?No won
- Will Kanye tweet between 500-549 times February 8-14?No won
- Will Kanye tweet between 550-599 times February 8-14?No won
- Will Kanye tweet between 600-649 times February 8-14?No won
- Will Kanye tweet between 650-699 times February 8-14?No won
- Will Kanye tweet less than 200 times February 8-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.