Tweets · resolved market
Will Kanye tweet less than 200 times February 8-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4215e62941d3d298839f3ddd5b14bee839ea7df38b406eda30d7e6241c8d09ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ed7…7d71backed Yes | 0c | 10,600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 8c | 4,860$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.43 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,797$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…fe87backed Yes | 9c | 2,338$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +1,115.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 5c | 1,290$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceaa…bb9abacked Yes | 18c | 1,187$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…3181backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 1c | 1,013$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,008$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 21c | 650$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.9 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed Yes | 3c | 378$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 10c | 319$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 4c | 234.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…0050backed Yes | 5c | 223.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed Yes | 12c | 182.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed No | 80c | 157$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 181 | 18.8%34 W · 147 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba95…908fbacked Yes | 13c | 149.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 11c | 128.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 13c | 79.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…c2b6backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +213.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +226.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2144…25bebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kanye tweet less than 200 times February 8-14?this page
- Will Kanye tweet 700 or more times February 8-14?No won
- Will Kanye tweet between 200-249 times February 8-14?Yes won
- Will Kanye tweet between 250-299 times February 8-14?No won
- Will Kanye tweet between 300-349 times February 8-14?No won
- Will Kanye tweet between 350-399 times February 8-14?No won
- Will Kanye tweet between 400-449 times February 8-14?No won
- Will Kanye tweet between 450-499 times February 8-14?No won
- Will Kanye tweet between 500-549 times February 8-14?No won
- Will Kanye tweet between 550-599 times February 8-14?No won
- Will Kanye tweet between 600-649 times February 8-14?No won
- Will Kanye tweet between 650-699 times February 8-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.