Weather · resolved market
Arsonists arrested in connection with LA wildfires?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48b89ee1ee4632a1f3e173782e7081121c2c95035be6bcc0f9c3c8a119aae9e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked No | 1c | 40,848$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 6c | 22,885$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6125…089cbacked No | 25c | 12,953$3,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,286.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…a236backed No | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No | 2c | 8,555$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 1c | 7,464$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca93…05c6backed No | 1c | 6,220$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…4f7fbacked No | 19c | 6,056$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 6c | 5,831$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.42 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 22c | 3,492$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 9c | 3,319$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.27 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 6c | 2,700$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.96 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 3c | 2,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 16c | 1,929$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.78 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 26c | 1,399$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +282.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 4c | 1,250$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 11c | 1,111$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.58 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes | 70c | 1,010$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 21c | 951.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 11c | 689$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed No | 11c | 650$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7b…426bbacked No | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6b…29fdbacked No | 56c | 532.6$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 25c | 518.21$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…b61cbacked No | 12c | 500$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…42debacked Yes | 39c | 399.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…f801backed Yes | 36c | 350$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 13c | 331$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdb…4304backed No | 6c | 330.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed No | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 272.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 72c | 223.45$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7e…36bcbacked No | 7c | 215.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 63c | 205.33$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked No | 12c | 203.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6a74backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 41c | 188.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 12c | 149$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1b22backed No | 24c | 140$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…e231backed No | 11c | 136$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…2ce6backed No | 12c | 105.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6564…fef5backed No | 17c | 104.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e30…ef89backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +125%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked No | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69a8…3abfbacked No | 36c | 56.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…09fcbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb3…7949backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 42c | 37.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…ed7ebacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…0b60backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 61c | 21.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.