NFL · resolved market
Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Raiders?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf15dda6075dc7b57c882403faa04d4aae34ea53f11ef50c3fe7e31d1f9be30fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 0c | 4,896$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba95…908fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,537$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 72c | 628.79$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.57 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0b…5df6backed No | 77c | 522.93$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.75 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9325…a85abacked Yes | 29c | 521$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.47 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +159.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked No | 64c | 417.01$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.63 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 73c | 205.23$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…e91abacked Yes | 47c | 138.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…2a5fbacked No | 77c | 135$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.95 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed No | 73c | 116.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 104$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…168abacked Yes | 47c | 63.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x112a…c789backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 77c | 58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…7110backed Yes | 22c | 58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +346.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…1e3abacked Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 26c | 43.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 53c | 42.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…4846backed No | 65c | 42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4de…2803backed Yes | 37c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…72a3backed Yes | 37c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x494b…68e5backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cac…d8a6backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…575bbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd4…e3fabacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…725cbacked No | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1e…c0d0backed Yes | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2b…c5cabacked Yes | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…732cbacked No | 78c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x723f…879bbacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a30…e7e4backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f5…14b6backed No | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…bfaabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…d0d7backed No | 63c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a1…a9c5backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…4fd1backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Raiders?this page
- Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Bears?No won
- Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Broncos?No won
- Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Chargers?No won
- Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Cowboys?No won
- Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Jaguars?No won
- Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Rams?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.