NFL · resolved market
Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Cowboys?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf16c6532de7c768406e4db1d4a213c6a01d45b9a151daf00fa6b40151feef78b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ac6…2501backed Yes | 59c | 1,301$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 7c | 904.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9325…a85abacked Yes | 6c | 501$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +159.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked No | 56c | 351.84$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.77 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91a…a07cbacked Yes | 4c | 304.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked No | 52c | 240$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.7 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 56c | 226$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 51c | 195$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…2a5fbacked No | 55c | 189.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 72c | 187.5$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 156.71$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 22c | 150$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.5 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 26c | 125$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1930…7d54backed Yes | 17c | 120.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 66c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd598…e859backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +174%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 39c | 85.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…1081backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…51babacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd720…9be9backed No | 75c | 26.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…4846backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Cowboys?this page
- Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Bears?No won
- Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Broncos?No won
- Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Chargers?No won
- Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Jaguars?No won
- Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Raiders?Yes won
- Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Rams?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.