NBA · resolved market
Will Jimmy Butler get traded?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x116207dd86a6fe370e15bf23e482e1049157d39cbc2a323be2de510e678bcc50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Yes | 30c | 4,364$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,042.71 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 68c | 2,489$1,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,702.85 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 36c | 2,009$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.66 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 56c | 1,977$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.6 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x754a…f46ebacked Yes | 56c | 1,600$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 56c | 1,506$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 43c | 1,386$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed No | 50c | 1,256$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.84 | 596 | 46.1%275 W · 321 L | -16.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fd…7ae6backed No | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 64c | 1,137$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.96 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 72c | 1,007$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.81 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -87%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9141…7ffabacked Yes | 52c | 960$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0139…e296backed Yes | 52c | 960$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…4af9backed No | 48c | 960$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…4e08backed No | 48c | 960$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…beccbacked No | 40c | 910$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3aa…2d76backed Yes | 60c | 910$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4665…a0f7backed Yes | 60c | 910$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…8d9bbacked No | 41c | 910$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Yes | 47c | 856.56$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.62 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7612…01c9backed No | 44c | 800$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1824…6658backed No | 44c | 800$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes | 57c | 653.29$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.72 | 389 | 42.9%167 W · 222 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…5a95backed Yes | 57c | 539.82$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 33c | 509.74$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.73 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed Yes | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 34c | 472.53$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.72 | 61 | 13.1%8 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 50c | 461.05$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.55 | 334 | 28.1%94 W · 240 L | -20.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked No | 22c | 411.95$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 55c | 394.72$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.93 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…dbdcbacked Yes | 76c | 392.77$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.59 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…7bd8backed No | 46c | 325.77$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.58 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 30c | 270.81$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.24 | 304 | 43.1%131 W · 173 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed No | 26c | 252.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb84…f704backed Yes | 77c | 248.42$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…62e0backed No | 37c | 247.45$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 71c | 220$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…e4cfbacked Yes | 55c | 192.24$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked No | 13c | 167$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 40c | 165.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 234 | 38.9%91 W · 143 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 21c | 149.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 11c | 136.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…af00backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012b…4745backed Yes | 79c | 126.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4999…5fcebacked No | 50c | 101.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.6wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -61%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…9d02backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 261 | 24.1%63 W · 198 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 65c | 92.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 31c | 92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 75c | 86.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 58c | 83.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 232 | 37.1%86 W · 146 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed Yes | 35c | 79.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x925a…3e7fbacked Yes | 45c | 70.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +167.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…6f06backed No | 28c | 70.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b0…0490backed No | 70c | 69.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 36c | 65.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 59c | 61.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0b…f1c0backed Yes | 46c | 61.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe526…6d8ebacked Yes | 56c | 57.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe667…f60fbacked No | 26c | 56.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…3335backed No | 38c | 52.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e8…2688backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -9.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 44c | 46.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…643dbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked Yes | 54c | 39.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 52c | 39.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 27c | 38.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Yes | 57c | 31.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…8715backed Yes | 48c | 28.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…40d1backed Yes | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…8ac8backed Yes | 58c | 27.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…204dbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b2…5b2cbacked Yes | 50c | 23.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…d16dbacked Yes | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb39a…7a99backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 350 | 46%161 W · 189 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…244bbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +921.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.